Research

Peer-Reviewed

“The Logic of Authoritarian Industrial Policy: The Case of Angola’s Special Economic Zone”, African Affairs, Volume 121, Issue 485, October 2022, Pages 595-622
https://doi.org/10.1093/afraf/adac033

Abstract

The commodity boom witnessed the emergence of ambitious developmental projects in Africa. But in its focus on the distribution of power, the extant literature struggles to explain the logic driving observed development strategies. To fill this gap, this article provides the first comprehensive study of the Zona Económica Especial de Luanda-Bengo, Angola’s main industrial project of the post-civil war era. Built at a cost of at least US$1 billion, sprawling over 1.5 million hectares, and comprising establishments imported by the state across multiple sectors, the Zona Económica Especial’s ill-conceived design doomed it to failure from the start. But this did not hinder its use for elite rent-seeking, supported by the international networks fed by Angola’s oil wealth. I argue that these outcomes reflect the ruling MPLA’s typical ‘bifurcated policy style’, marked by a disjuncture between discourse and policy practice and the competition for the spoils of the state’s heavy expenditures. Its origins are to be found in the strategies deployed by MPLA leaders to enforce organizational cohesion and to pursue military and programmatic goals over the course of its long civil war. I contend that similar analyses could help illuminate the drivers of industrial policy in other party-based authoritarian regimes.

“Politics by Default: China and the Global Governance of African Debt” (with Harry Verhoeven), Survival, Volume 64, Issue 3, 2022, Pages 153-178
https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2022.2078054

Abstract
In the last two decades, the rapid growth of many African economies has coincided with deepening commercial and political ties with China and a re-emergence of perilous indebtedness. US administrations have warned that Beijing is ensnarling Africa in debt to gain political leverage and force African states to cede strategic assets to China. The charge that China is uniquely responsible for Africa’s heavy debt is also shaping the flagship debt initiatives of the World Bank and the IMF. An analysis of the theoretical assumptions underpinning the ‘debt-trap’ narrative and the empirical evidence indicates that the preoccupation with China’s role is misguided, and is in fact rendering it harder to service and relieve African debt. Furthermore, framing the African debt problem in terms of great-power rivalry obscures structural features of the international financial system that are far more consequential in shaping the liquidity and solvency of African states.

Working Papers

“States and Markets in the Energy Transition: Explaining National Oil Companies’ Clean Energy Investments in Brazil and Angola”

Abstract
Controlling over half of global oil and gas production, accounting for 40% of oil and gas investment, and with rights over two-thirds of proven reserves, the decarbonization of National Oil Companies (NOCs) will be key to determining whether the world meets its climate targets. However, they have displayed varying appetites for diversification into renewable energy. For an oil company, the decision to invest in renewable energy is far from obvious, given the much lower financial returns of the sector relative to their core business. This problem is exacerbated in the case of NOCs by their dual nature as profit-oriented firms and instruments of government policy, which arguably increases their overheads and reduces their effectiveness in smaller-scale, more competitive sectors of the economy. To identify the drivers of NOCs’ investments in renewable energy, this paper opens the black box of decision-making in Brazil’s Petrobras and Angola’s Sonangol, drawing on semi-structured elite interviews and textual analysis of secondary sources. Despite patent differences in terms of governance, technological capacity, and centrality for their respective countries’ economies, the two NOCs have displayed similarities in the timing of their investments in biofuels and solar energy. I argue that the logic of renewable energy investments in the face of poor profitability must be understood with reference to the interaction between each NOC’s characteristic political-economic logic, including the role of national executives, and their exposure to the “greening” of international finance and technical partnerships. By showing how renewable energy policy is embedded in the specificities of the domestic and international political economies, this paper contributes to the study of the political economy of climate transitions. Moreover, it contributes to the incipient literature on NOCs and climate politics.
“Bargaining for Sovereignty: Explaining African Participation in the G20 Common Framework for Debt Treatments” (with Harry Verhoeven)
Abstract

What does the current impasse around the global governance of sovereign debt tell us about the effects of international financial diversification on the agency of peripheral states in the global political economy? To address this question, this paper examines the drivers of African governments’ participation in the G20 Common Framework for Debt Treatments. Almost half of all low-income countries are at acute risk of, or already in, debt distress, the majority of them African. While most African sovereigns have shunned the G20 initiative, four African states have nonetheless signed up to the Common Framework, including non-defaulting Chad and Ethiopia

We argue that the determinants of African participation can be explained by analyzing debt policy as concerned with more than financial considerations and crucially also evincing strategic foreign policy rationales. We demonstrate that motivations for (not) joining the Common Framework were complex and as much political as they were economic: they reflected attempts to consolidate ties with the geopolitical West following excessive exposure to non-traditional lenders but also served the purpose of signaling broader political alignment with the United States, France and key Gulf Arab states amidst shifting regional security dilemmas.

We support this argument through an empirical analysis of decision-making in Angola, Cape Verde, Chad, and Ethiopia, drawing on elite interviews with senior decision-makers and other key informers, conducted through both project-specific and long-term fieldwork. By approaching debt policy through the prism of African states’ strategic calculus to enhance their sovereignty, this paper brings together important qualitative primary data with insights from the rich scholarship on African governments’ decision-making to shed light on underexplored aspects of sovereign debt governance. Conversely, we also foreground the foreign policy dimensions of African economic policy, which have been underemphasized in the Africanist literature.

“Tracking Energy Cooperation through Data Diplomacy: Introducing the Enetrix Brazil Platform” (with Iure Paiva, Renan Holanda Montenegro and Renata Albuquerque Ribeiro)

Abstract

The study of the international political economy (IPE) of energy has picked up pace in recent years, as climate change and development join energy security and commercial considerations among the objectives of international energy policy. Moreover, there is increasing pressure from civil society for participation in decision-making on foreign policy. This article introduces the Enetrix Platform, a new database for tracking Energy Diplomacy. Enetrix extracts data from diplomatic documents signed by approximately 193 countries and over 20 international organizations worldwide and provides quick, efficient, and personalized access to it on its platform. We provide descriptive statistics from Enetrix’s Brazil Platform and show how it captures the evolution of Brazil’s energy diplomacy, as well as its main partners and energy resources. A case study of Brazil’s prominent biofuel diplomacy then shows how Enetrix can both help verify existing qualitative knowledge and reveal underexplored aspects of energy cooperation. Despite still being under development, we argue that Enetrix has the potential to improve public accountability and participation in international energy cooperation and thus serve as a useful data tool for quantitative research on the IPE of energy.

“Energy Transition and the Political Economy of Diversification in African Petrostates”

Abstract

“China’s Overseas Climate Finance, 2000-2017”
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4502356  

Abstract

Despite being a Great Power and the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, China’s identity as a developing country has made it reluctant to shoulder formal responsibilities for financing global climate action. Its foreign aid has nonetheless incorporated climate components for over a decade, while the recent emergence of a “green soft power” agenda has led to a pick-up in Chinese financing for climate adaptation and mitigation. Like other “new” donors, however, China does not follow DAC conventions in labelling its foreign aid according to the Rio climate markers, hindering the tracking of its climate finance. To fill this gap, this paper uses Aid Data’s Global Chinese Development Finance dataset to track Chinese overseas climate finance over time and across countries. To address the notorious difficulties in categorizing climate-related projects, I deploy a combination of keyword searches and manual coding methods. Through regression analysis, I then examine the role of recipient needs, strategic motives, and measures of governance in driving climate finance allocations. I find that although it still forms only a small fraction of China’s overseas finance, climate finance is responsive to recipient country needs, in contrast to the political motivations that predominate in China’s broader official finance.

Non-peer-reviewed

A integração da África nas finanças internacionais e suas consequências políticas”, Journal of Democracy em Português, Volume 13, Issue 1, May 2024, Pages 136-166

In Progress

“Levers of Financial Influence over National Oil Companies’ Climate Strategies” (with Paasha Mahdavi)